Monday, October 6, 2008

Election analysis: Texas House District 97

By Vince Leibowitz of Capitol Annex

Dan Barrett

Texas House District 97: Rep. Dan Barrett (D-Fort Worth) v. Mark M. Shelton (R-Fort Worth). Incumbent Protection, LIKELY DEMOCRATIC. For Democrats, Dan Barrett’s Tarrant County seat is a “must hold” to take back the Texas House of Representatives.

Barrett has some advantages as the incumbent, but not the traditional advantages of an incumbent who has actually served during a time when the Texas Legislature was in session. Having won the election in a lower-turnout election cycle and special election, Barrett could still see significant danger between now and election day.

One disadvantage for Barrett is that Shelton has already proven he’s willing to dwell in the gutter to win a campaign. We fully expect more gutteresque tactics this election cycle. On advantage for Barrett is that Shelton is Tom Craddick’s “guy Friday,” and has already been defeated by Barrett once.

WHAT THE DEMOCRAT HAS TO DO TO WIN: It is tough campaigning for re-election when you don’t have an actual record in the Texas legislature upon which to campaign, but this is the lot Barrett has drawn given the way former State Rep. Anna Mowery (R-Fort Worth) timed her resignation in 2007. However, Barrett can tout his record of constituent services. Too, because he doesn’t have a record of House votes, he’s also at an advantage to some degree because he isn’t forced to defend any arcane votes that Republicans may decide to bring up in a mail piece. Barrett is going to have to tout a record of reform and tie his opponent to Tom Craddick. Of course, money will be a factor in this race, and Barrett will need to remain competitive with Shelton in this area.

WHAT WILL TIP IT: Again, the presidential race will be key. Barrett can’t afford a large crop of energized GOP voters coming out to vote against Barack Obama. On the other hand, a groundswell of “change” voters voting for Barack Obama will significantly hurt Shelton since he is a Republican and new voters coming out for Obama are unlikely to support a Republican. Gutter tactics like Shelton has been accused of using in the past could tip this race either way. If the tactics work, they give Shelton the advantage. If they backfire, they give Barrett the advantage.

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